WAGERPROOF: NO-VIG REVIEW SHEET
Version 1 | September 22, 2026
Manual worksheet, not an automatic calculator or betting recommendation.

MARKET
Event:
Book:
Period and exact line:
Settlement rules (include tie, push and void handling):
Captured at (date, time, time zone):
All outcomes and offered prices:

CALCULATION
Convert positive American +A: 100 / (A + 100)
Convert negative American -A: A / (A + 100), using positive magnitude A
Convert decimal odds d: 1 / d
Use fractions internally, not rounded display percentages.
Use decimal odds > 1; standard American odds >= +100 or <= -100.
Missing or zero prices are invalid. If booksum <= 1, check matching and
completeness before drawing conclusions; there is no positive overround.

Raw probability of each outcome:
Booksum (sum of raw probabilities):
Overround (booksum minus 1):
Method: proportional normalization
Each no-vig probability = raw probability / booksum:
Each no-vig decimal price = 1 / no-vig probability:
For p < 0.5, American price = +100 * (1-p) / p
For p > 0.5, American price = -100 * p / (1-p)
At p = 0.5, American price = +100

SEPARATE ESTIMATE
Model or other source:
Estimated chance:
Version / information cutoff:
Reasons it could be wrong:
Current offered price and break-even rate:
For a win-or-loss bet: EV per $1 = p * (decimal odds - 1) - (1-p)
For pushes: include P(win), P(loss), and P(push) separately; push net = 0.
Decision and reason, saved before result:

LATER REVIEW (do not overwrite original note)
Price/line changes:
Closing reference and capture time, if tracked:
Final result:
Missing information or unresolved settlement:
What the original assumptions missed:

FICTIONAL CHECK EXAMPLE
Two mutually exclusive outcomes, no tie or push, no fees.
Same book and timestamp; Side A -150, Side B +130.
Raw A = 150/250 = 0.6
Raw B = 100/230 = 0.4347826087
Booksum = 1.0347826087 (103.47826087%)
Overround = 0.0347826087 (3.47826087 percentage points above 100%)
No-vig A = 69/119 = 57.98319328%
No-vig B = 50/119 = 42.01680672%
No-vig decimal A = 119/69 = 1.7246376812
No-vig decimal B = 119/50 = 2.38
No-vig American A = -138; B = +138.
These are calculated reference prices, not available offers or true chances.

Assumed independent estimate for A = 59%.
It exceeds the 57.98% no-vig reference but not the 60% break-even at -150.
EV per $100 = 0.59 * (100 * 100/150) - 0.41 * 100 = -$1.66666667.
At estimates 58%, 59%, 60%, 61%, EV per $100 is -$3.33, -$1.67, $0, +$1.67.
Do not infer the estimate is correct from the arithmetic.

INPUT CHECKS
- Same event, book, time, period, exact line and settlement rules.
- Include every possible outcome. Do not omit a draw.
- Over 24.5 and under 25.5 are not opposite sides of the same line.
- Do not treat a sum built across books as one book's margin.
- Do not multiply parlay leg probabilities without justified independence.
- A no-vig reference is not proof of true probability or a profitable bet.

Guide: https://wagerproof.bet/blog/implied-probability-vs-true-probability/
This sheet is for education. WagerProof is a research product, not a sportsbook.